The cost of copper will decline in 2015
Anyway, this is quite confident specialists Wood Mackenzie. According to them, the red metal quotes in the current year will be lower than in 2014. In January, the price of copper reached its lowest level in 5letny period. This is not surprising, given the reluctance of investors to invest in metals. Prerequisites for this weight. Here and reduction of China's economic growth and increase the risk, no matter the state of the macroeconomy. Last year, China imported 12 mln. Tons of copper concentrate, ignoring the finished metal in favor of raw materials. According to preliminary data the volume of imports of concentrate in the next 3 years will continue to grow. The main influencing factor is the construction of new ones. This lack of internal capacity to ensure that the demand will still be quite noticeable. The annual increase in demand of 400−500 million tons, so to continue and imports of finished copper.
Stocks of copper at LME warehouses continued to rise, pointing to declining demand. Since the beginning of 2015 grew by 50%. As for the excess copper, then the predictions of analysts Wood Mackenzie this year they will amount to about 200 000 tonnes. It seems that growth in production will continue until 2017 due to the implementation of projects. And if last year the world production of copper was 18.6 million. Tons, to 2017 figures will jump to the level of 22 million. Tons. And this despite the fact that new projects in Peru and Chile have not yet reached full capacity. In 2014, the smelting of copper were spent about 235 cents per pound — or 5180 USD per ton. But today the price fell to 220 cents per pound — or 4850 USD per ton. In this case, the situation has affected decrease in oil prices and an increase in the dollar exchange rate relative to the currencies of countries that produce copper.
Wood Mackenzie analysts believe that this year copper costs 290 cents per pound — or 6400 USD per ton. To date, the price fell below 6000 USD / ton. However, there is an excess of implementation, which implies a recovery in quotations. However, there is evidence of growth in consumer prices for copper in China in the fall of the cost of manufacturers. This trend points to a weakening of the Chinese economy. Experts, however, hope for the best. In particular, the drought in Chile, the leading producer of the red metal, and an increase in demand for copper in China's power industry.