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After 2016 Nickel is in short supply

4 January 2015

Experts of the company «Glencore», Switzerland, predicted deficit in the global nickel market which arise after 2016 particularly acute shortage of impact in 2018. According to forecasts of analytical metal flaw in this period will be over 100 000 tonnes. The demand in the stainless steel industry will increase. However, production will not be as quick to gain the necessary speed. In particular, the production of Chinese nickel pig iron in 2013 amounted to 510 000 tonnes. This year, the mark dropped to 480,000 tons, and the figure fell in 2015 to 350 000−400 000 tonnes.

At the moment, the lack of supply of Indonesian compensated Philippine products. This year the supply level reaches 52 million. Wet tonnes. But stocks of nickel gradually depleted. At the beginning of the year their level exceeded 20 mln. Tons of wet raw materials. To date, the volume dropped to below 10 million. Tons. Weather conditions have a negative impact on the supply of Chinese raw materials, which will also affect the amount of inventory.

According to forecasts of «Glencore» specialists, smelting nickel until 2019 will increase annually by about 1%. This year, nickel production will amount to about 2 million. Tons. The production of Chinese nickel pig iron will fall due to the Indonesian ban. The same prohibition would adversely affect the implementation of many projects. As for consumption, in the 2014−2019 biennium. its growth will be 4.5% per annum (about 75 000−100 000 tonnes) except for China, which will have an impact on demand in India and North America. The following year, the ratio of offer-demand will reach 50×50. In 2016, the lack of proposals will begin to rise and will exceed 100,000 tons in 2018. In 2019 this figure could exceed 200 000 tonnes.

The Indonesian government does not intend to abolish the ban on the export of unprocessed raw materials. Nickel ore also fall under the ban, therefore the value of the metal on the London Stock Exchange continues to grow. Analysts «Citi Group» estimated 2014 deficit of 62 400 tonnes. Next year this figure will exceed 103,000 tons. According to Chinese government statistics in 2015, nickel production will fall by 10%. In 2014, the volume reached the level of 680 000 tonnes compared to the projected 610 000 tonnes next year. This will increase the demand, amounting in 2015 1020 thousand. Tons compared to 940 thousand. Tons this year.

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