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aluminum market in 2014 expects the deficit

25 August 2014

Analysts, assessing the global aluminum market, the forecasts are not encouraging — even with a certain spread, coming global shortage of metal in volume from 61 000 to 1 500 000 tonnes. By May 2014 the cost of light metal on the London Stock Exchange increased by 20%, which greatly contributed to the closure of inefficient capacities of the largest aluminum producers in the ranks of which turned out to be and «Rusal». And this state of affairs in the near future will not change — the company does not plan to run a stopped production, counting on a further increase in value of the product.

Under assumptions of experts of the Japanese company «Sumitomo Corp» this year the global aluminum market for the first time since 2006, expects the metal deficit, which will amount to 61,000 tons, while there was a surplus in the amount of 580 000 tonnes in 2013. This is not surprising, given the reduction in aluminum production capacity is gradually growing demand from the automotive industry. 61,000 tonnes deficit is not the limit — in the next year, analysts «Sumitomo» promise to increase in the level of 493,000 tonnes. Assumptions of the producers reach the level of 1.5 million tons -. It is a figure of the deficit in the current year calls Soloviev, First Deputy General Director of «Rusal», not while taking into account the PRC. The representatives of «Rusal» confident in the sustainability of the deficit, given the almost complete lack of new projects and capacity to stop, which is that nobody is going to run. «Alcoa» less categorical on its forecast of aluminum deficit of about 930,000 tonnes.

How to say in the «Rusal», a universal problem with aluminum bypass Russia party. For the period January-June the volume of industrial production in Russia increased by 1.5%, the rate of the manufacturing industry was 2.6%, while the auto industry needs reduced. According to data provided by Rosstat, the volume of cars produced was 920,000, a decrease of 1.3%, the release of a utility vehicle is 75,000, a decrease of 21%. Analysts of «Rusal» talking about annual growth in world demand for light metal at a rate of 6%, «of Alcoa," experts say about 7%. At the same time, both companies are guided by the increase in production volumes in the aerospace and aviation industries, and «Alcoa» expects to increase in demand from the automotive, construction and packaging industries. However, the cost of aluminum could be reduced if the London Stock Exchange will review its rules of storage.

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